Message from Jim

Did you know the NFIP paid out more claims in 2005 than it had in its previous years of existence between 1968 and 2004 (NAIC, 2017), with Hurricane Katrina alone accounting for 167,992 paid losses totaling $16.3 billion? In 2012, Superstorm Sandy added another 131,111 paid losses totaling $8.5 billion. Other billion dollar storms since 2000 include Allison in 2001 ($1.1), Ivan in 2004 ($1.6), Irene in 2011 ($1.3), and the Louisiana severe storms in 2016 ($2.3) (FEMA, 2017).

In the world of probability and statistics, the term "100-year flood", which is intended to define an engineer’s calculated line for a Base Flood Elevation, is confusing and should not be used. Various agencies and consultants are working to eliminate the use of this term since it does not mean a flood of that magnitude occurs every 100 years, as it is often incorrectly assumed. As discussed in last month’s newsletter, a huge problem with flood protection is driven by personal biases created to serve and protect us, but in reality, this does much more harm than good. They impede our ability to understand proper flood risk and mitigation strategies.

Nonetheless, the Base Flood Elevation is intended to identify the extent of the 1% percent annual chance flood which water will reach or exceed. Bolding or underlying the word "exceed" in all NFIP publications would be helpful in educating consumers since the so-called "1,000-year flood" event (not every 1,000 years) is occurring more often than 1/10th of 1% annual chance. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Weather Service noted five (Louisiana, Maryland, West Virginia, Texas, and South Carolina) such rain and flooding events in just the last 19 months (NAIC, 2017).

What’s going on? The planet is in change mode, and society is slow to follow. Pick a bias, any bias, as to personal reluctance of moving slowly. The reality of a warming planet will bring much more destruction with higher sea levels and the ability for the atmosphere to retain more moisture. Heck, even King Tides, which naturally occur and are predictable, will reach much further inland and cause more destruction. Combining a coastal storm with a King Tide could cause immense devastation.

Granted, the 1% annual chance flood can be difficult to ascertain since this map line is not delineated on the ground, nor does an actual storm see this map line. Does it really matter where the 1% annual chance flood line exists on the ground or on a map when making appropriate proactive choices? Remember, this line is primarily used for minimum permitting requirements and for insuring federally backed loans, and does not have a very congruent attachment to actual risk. It was never intended to delineate a flood safety zone, so we should never accept the concept that without mandatory flood insurance, we are safe from a flood! This logic will continue to get easier to prove as we move forward. Reaching homeowners without a federally insured loan and the ones outside the Special Flood Hazard Area is vital for program success.

We've shared it before, but here it is again: A link to a PDF of The U.S. Geological Survey's infographic on the 1% Annual Chance Flood.