You will NOT vote this November.

That’s the overwhelming assumption based on the data. It’s a simple fact that’s driving huge sums of marketing dollars towards campaign strategies that target specific individuals. Rather than making an appeal to everyone, it’s more effective to influence a small audience I call the “Vocal Minority”.

Here’s the facts:

Presidential elections are decided by around 60% of voters, which means 4 out of 10 remain silent. That translates into only 30% of the eligible population forming a “majority”. Savvy campaign strategists understand the power of converting this Vocal Minority into a win through emotional appeals that get people to act.

But it’s more complex. There’s a big swing in voter turnout historically between midterm and presidential elections.

There’s a consistent trend of even lower voter turnout for midterm elections, with a mere 40% of the eligible voters casting a ballot. This is likely the result of lower perceived importance combined with reduced campaign spending. The lower spend in marketing makes sense when we analyze the Vocal Minority in midterm elections.

With only 18% of the total population required to win, it’s easier to achieve a “majority” from the vocal minority. That simplifies the campaign strategy by lowering the results needed, which calls for lower spending. In turn, general awareness levels are lower because there’s less noise to grab attention.

It’s not a matter of voter registration. The number of eligible individuals remains fairly constant. The issue is action or apathy.

Presidential elections bring out 88% of registered voters. But midterms draw out only 59%— a nearly 30% reduction. The facts explain the dynamics.

Regardless of your political orientation in this polarized era, it’s clear that we’re not achieving popular mandates. The utopian ideal of popular rule is being overrun by strong ideology that galvanizes a passionate sense of urgency to act. In this particular case it’s simply to cast a ballot.

What can brands learn?

>Brands function using similar tactics.

Looking at political campaigns helps make it easy to see how it’s done. Here are three proven ways to capture your own Vocal Minority who can amplify your messages:

Using simple messaging that resonates with a defined audience, it’s possible to enroll people into a movement that they believe in. That spirited community becomes loyal followers who help spread the word to their friends. Social media technology accelerates this process, resulting in highly effective marketing strategies.

But the stakes for brands and the audience are high. Brands who are unethical, inauthentic or misleading may find short term upside from uneducated, naive audiences who blindly accept false information. History shows that followers eventually develop the maturity to see reality. When vocal minority groups feel betrayed, they can transform into a violent mob seeking revenge.

Next month’s 2018 midterm elections could change the current status quo. But that’s only possible if the Silent Majority becomes a factor. After the ballots are tabulated, I’ll write a follow up post with those results.

Happy October. Happy First Tuesday.
_//jamie_