It should not come as a surprise that many in North Dakota's state government (both elected and appointed) want to minimize the long term realities of the continued oil price decline. However, it is important to realize that there is a spin machine in North Dakota just as everywhere else - and that many are playing the C.Y.A. game today.
Yesterday, it was announced that taxable sales in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 were 25% lower than Q3 of 2014. This was not shocking to anybody, and the 4th Quarter is likely to be even worse.
State Tax Commissioner Ryan Rauschenberger's press release on the subject framed it this way: “Although taxable sales and purchases for the third quarter are down when compared with 2014, viewing it with a longer-term perspective still shows an increase,” stated Rauschenberger. “Taxable sales and purchases for the third quarter have increased more than 31 percent since 2010.”
Not stated, of course, is that during the 3 legislative sessions since 2010, state spending has out-paced taxable sales 40% to 31% AFTER subtracting the 12% reduction in state spending in the 2015 session.
Taxable sales is one of the better measures of the economy as a whole, which means state spending, in the 2010-2015 time-frame the state tax department is choosing to use, has out paced the economy substantially.
