We spend our summer checking the BOM site, but the weather and forecasts still often remain a bit of a mystery to us so we’ve asked Luke to answer a few questions that we have probably all wondered at some point. For Luke's more detailed answers see our website here.
How do you predict the weather?
We look at as many observations as we can to see what is happening and what will happen and then rely on a whole range of computer models. Trouble is, the computers rarely get it right, and so as weather forecasters, we try to add as much of our expertise and experience as we can to come up with what we deem to be the most likely scenario.
Can a layperson predict the weather? If so, how?
With enough experience forecasting at a particular location and building a knowledge of how weather systems affect our weather locally, I think a layperson can certainly predict the weather on a broad scale. For example, will it rain or be sunny, cold or hot, etc. Simply observing the clouds, anyone can start to recognise patterns and types that are linked to certain weather and conditions.
Why do the forecasts not match reality on occasion?
There are many uncertainties that occur when forecasting the weather. Timing of weather systems can delay or speed up, they can weaken/strengthen ahead of arriving, which affects the intensity of the weather. Sometimes a cold front that is expected to cross Tasmania in four days from can end up passing to the south by the time it arrives. There are many ingredients that go into the weather and by altering one or two ingredients by a miniscule amount (for example half a degree in temperature difference), you can easily end up with completely different weather than originally forecast.
What do you think of the weather apps and is there one you would recommend?
The BOM weather app is very good for providing up to date information and forecasts for your location based on the forecasts from meteorologists, rather than model data.
What do you need to do to become a meteorologist?
Maths and physics degrees at University level. The Bureau of Meteorology has an intake once a year that involves completing a Graduate Diploma of Meteorology at our Training Centre located in Melbourne. Information about this course can be found here.
Read Luke’s full answers on our blog.
