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June 2022 Global Enduring Disorder Newsletter

Every month, we hope to write to you from a more ordered world, but this June, despite some steps in the right direction (like Sweden and Finland clearing Turkey’s objection to join NATO), our hopes remain largely unfulfilled. As the forces of Order make various strides forward, they always seem to be outpaced by the forces of Disorder. This month we have seen NATO and the G-7 grapple with how to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, while China continues to clampdown on basic civilian rights with its heavily criticised zero-COVID policy and travel restrictions. We are also witnessing a precipitous drop in cooperation in the Arctic to address climate change, the looming food crisis hitting the Middle East and Africa with millions on the verge of famine, and Trump-backed candidates finding striking success in the US midterm primaries. But possibly most predictable and most tragic manifestation of our current era of disorder is the US judiciary finally unveiling its hand -- staking out a disordering position on gun control and abortion that is at odds with the American electorate and almost all other Western countries.

Amidst all this turmoil, the concept we came up with three years ago of the globe living through an era of disorder is gradually gaining hold among the broader sphere of pundits and policymakers. Just take a look at the opinion section of the Financial Times:

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The necessity to propose meaningful solutions for strong collective action is paramount but is largely shirked by the commentariat. This month we are excited to share the launch of our project that will attempt, in its own little way, to fill this gap. We hope you will join us on 18 July in London for our event at the Henry Jackson Society, visit our new website, NATO & the Global Enduring Disorder, and continue to stay informed about and engaged with the Enduring Disorder.

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Longing for Order

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We would like to invite you to join us on 18 July, 17:00BST, at the Henry Jackson Society for 'Ukraine, Libya, the Global Enduring Disorder and the Need for Western Hegemonic Ordering: In Conversation with Jason Pack'. The live event is taking place in London and will be streamed on Zoom, so our international audience can join the conversation as well.

Jason will be joined by Professor Alessandro Politi (Director of the NATO Defense College Foundation), Professor Brendan Simms (Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge, and President of the Henry Jackson Society), and Verity Hubbard (Senior Analyst at Libya-Analysis LLC).

This event will mark the launch of Jason's new project, NATO & The Global Enduring Disorder, which will be the home of the forthcoming podcast, 'The Global Disorder'.

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New Perspectives on Disorder

Website launch: NATO & the Global Enduring Disorder

We are delighted to announce the official launch of the NATO & the Global Enduring Disorder site, which serves as a homepage for work unpacking the era of ‘Enduring Disorder’. This project examines how the Enduring Disorder paradigm highlights the coordination failures surrounding international approaches to climate change, tax havens, cryptocurrency, the crises in Ukraine, Syria, and Afghanistan, and more — seeking to move past merely problematising failures — to proposing solutions to the world’s most pressing challenges.

In addition to articles and analysis from our project fellows (we will be appointing more of these shortly), the site will be the home of Jason's forthcoming podcast, The Global Disorder. The show will explore the hidden interconnections of corporate interests, human psychology and the globalised geopolitics of the mid-21st century. Our podcast will differ from most news and geopolitics podcasts by going beyond sensational crimes and bizarre instances of corruption to proposing new and engaging solutions to this era of disorder. We are excited to begin work on the podcast, which is set to launch this Fall.

Today, 30 June, Jason's ideas grace the hallowed pink pages of the Financial Times for the first time with his article, The west must work with Russia to save the Arctic.

You can probably buy it at newsstands near you until the end of today. Jason was able to write about this exciting and different domain thanks to the research assistant work of a young and upcoming scholar Edward Rhys Jones. Unfortunately, the article is behind a rigid firewall (although you may be able to access it as a new visitor or through an affiliated academic institution) and we are not at liberty to share a PDF. Therefore, by way of summary, we shall say it explores how amidst efforts to constrain further Russian aggression, there are areas we still need to work with Moscow on, notably climate change and the preservation of the Arctic.

The lack of strong collective action approaches towards the climate crisis is a crucial component in our era of disorder, and one we will see unfolding in the Arctic:

Russia has expanded its military presence in the high north in response to thawing sea routes. The invasion of Ukraine has led two previously neutral Arctic states — Finland and Sweden — to clear the last hurdles for Nato membership. If they can no longer act as brokers between Russia and the US on Arctic matters, rival military posturing will certainly worsen. China, which has its own Arctic ambitions, is seeking to establish a 'Polar Silk Road' — thus multiplying long-standing tensions on the northern Norwegian island of Svalbard…

Coordination with Russia and China without diminishing the West's ability to assist Ukraine or hold Moscow accountable is needed to prevent these possibilities from thawing into reality. As the tentative co-operation of the post-cold war era has eroded, the Arctic seemed to be the last bastion of a functional rules-based international order. Now, however, a combination of mutual distrust, sanctions and Ukraine-centred priorities threaten to make genuine collaboration difficult to achieve. Western governments must differentiate between areas of mutual interest and those which require a co-ordinated riposte to Moscow.

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Ordering the Disorder

Martin Van Creveld, Professor Emeritus at the Hebrew University, Jerusalem and one of the world’s best-known experts on military history and geostrategy, reviewed Jason's book Libya and the Global Enduring Disorder last month. Van Creveld said the book was a 'must' for 'anyone interested in Libya and its relations with the rest of the world', commending Jason as an Arabist and for connecting Libya to a broader framework through which we can unpack global disorder:

If there is anyone who can even begin to make some kind of sense of the way Libya is going, both internally and in respect to its infinitely complex relations with the rest of the world, it is Mr. Pack. As the title of his book indicates, on the whole his vision of the future is not optimistic. Unless something dramatic (“global collective action”?) is done, Libya is likely to remain in as much of a mess as it has been at least since the beginning of the by now half forgotten “Arab Renaissance” in 2011. Unless something dramatic is done, too, that mess is more likely to spread to other countries—particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and Southern Europe–­than the other way around.

Sabina Henneberg's review of Jason's book, Libya and the Global Enduring Disorder, published by Public Seminar on 15 June, commended Jason's work for highlighting and predicting the dynamics we are currently seeing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict:

At the same time, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given fresh evidence that Pack is right about the growing danger of global disorder. In the immediate weeks following Russia’s push toward Kyiv, Western countries were forced to choose between imposing sanctions that would hurt their own economies and letting Russia’s actions continue unimpeded. Meanwhile, Russia’s permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council prevented the body, which is mandated to respond to international violence, from taking action.

As Pack makes clear, the presidency of Donald Trump was merely a symptom of the deep-rooted and systemic dynamics he describes, and its replacement by the Biden administration is doing little to reverse these trends. The chaos created by the United States’s retreat from Afghanistan in summer 2021 also serves as evidence that the decline of American hegemony is linked to a rise in global disorder.

Libya and the Enduring Global Disorder adds to the growing chorus of informed voices warning of the need for some kind of corrective action at the global level— whether new American leadership, reformed international institutions, or something else.

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Thanks for reading, clicking, listening, and engaging. See you on Zoom or in person for our 18 July event. We hope we will be writing to you from a more ‘ordered’ world next month, but don’t hold your breath.

Jason Pack & the Global Enduring Disorder team.

 
 
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