THE PLAYERS: The pattern over the Deep South continues to be about the same as it has for the past couple of days, with high pressure to our northwest and southeast and a trough and frontal system sandwiched in between. The high over southern Georgia and northern Florida is weakening. The high over the Great Lakes that has been powering the Arctic airmass over the Plains has given up the tug of war and is pushing northeast across Canada. It will be replaced by a new, developing anticyclone over the western U.S. that will eventually propel a cold front through our area by midweek.
TIMING: A wave of precipitation moved through the Tennessee Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. There will be a bit of a lull today as we wait on the next disturbance. There will be scattered showers at times, but rainfall amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch through tonight. Highs today will be in the 60s north to around 70F in the I-20 corridor to the upper 70s over southern sections, where there will be less cloud cover. Showers will be increasing during the day Tuesday and through the overnight. Wednesday morning looks like it will be the wettest as the front finally makes its final push through the area. This is when the heavier rainfall amounts will occur. The front should be mainly our of the area by noon Wednesday.
IMPROVING REST OF THE WEEK: High pressure will dominate our weather for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Highs will be in the 50s and lows will be around 40F.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY: There are some questions about the weekend and beyond though. The Euro keeps us dry while the GFS develops low pressure over the Southeast that gives some folks another good round of rainfall. Stay tuned.
TROPICS: The Atlantic Hurricane Season ends officially on Monday. We will have a seasonal recap early this week here on AlabamaWX.
BEACHCAST: The weather will begin to change as we head into midweek as a frontal boundary will bring the chance of rain showers. Those showers could arrive along the coast as early as Tuesday evening. There will be a chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday as the front settles into the area. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.
DANCING WITH THE STATS: It was cold again Sunday morning in northern California. The low at Napa was 28f, tying the record for the date. Google’s home (Mountain View) bottomed out at 31F, also a record. Gilroy CA had some frozen garlic, checking in with 28F.
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WEATHERBRAINS: This week, the panel will entertain Tyler Radford from the Humanitarian Open Streets Project. This crowdsourced mapping project was instrumental in getting relief into the remote areas affected by Hurricane Patricia several weeks ago. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live at live.bigbrainsmedia.com You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24x7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.
ON THIS DATE IN 2005: The 2005 North Atlnatic Hurricane Season was the most active on record. Twenty seven named storms and one unnamed tropical storm shattered the old record of 21 storms set in 1933. Fifteen went on to become hurricanes, breaking the old record of 12 set in 1969. Seven major hurricane (category three or higher) were observed. Four hurricanes reached Category Five intensity (Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma.) Never since records began in 1851 have there been four Cat Five hurricanes in a single season. Wilma became the strongest Atlantic hurricane of record when reconnaissance found a central pressure of 882 mb. The long term average for a single season is 11 named storms, six hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Five names were retired (Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma.) Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma were all mahor hurricanes when they made landfall in the U.S. A total of five hurricanes and two tropical storms struck the U.S. Seven tropical cyclones hit Mexico. Vince became the first tropical cyclone to hit the nation of Spain when it made landfall there as a tropical depression. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.